Power Pros Forum

Is there any pitchers that stand out to you guys as deserving the Lucky/Unlucky ability? Off the top of my head, Cole Hamels (4-13, 4.09) fits. Felix Hernandez was like that in the past but he's fared better this year record-wise (Cy Young, anybody?).

I'd like it if we could make more topics like this for individual abilities as it would help me out as I update rosters.

Tim Lincecum? He's 5-10 with a 4.63 ERA, which isn't horrible.

Edit: A guy like Jacob Turner, Alvarez, pretty much most of the reliable marlins pitchers'll be unlucky.

Chris Tillman (13-3, 3.62 era) should get Lucky.

Would love to give these guys Lucky, however dish made me Turner awhile ago and Tillman/Alvarez have not been made yet.

I'd be reluctant to just dish out Unlucky to any decent pitcher on a bad team. You'd have to look at the team's other starters and see how it compares.

I think the standard for Unlucky pitchers like this would be Doug Fister. Maybe we could start by looking at how much run support a certain SP gets per game?

If you want it to be more reliable, look at stats such as BABIP and xFIP. A lot of pitchers are just unlucky (or lucky) because they pitch on terrible (or great) teams.

Zack Grienke was a guy who's sabermetrics showed that he was a better pitcher than his ERA and WHIP would leave you to believe, so he's a guy where unlucky could work

You could start with that, but you'd also have to look at how much run support the team's other starters get.

Skittles, your suggestion makes sense, but the PP kind of Lucky were talking about only affects the team's hitters, so run support is pretty much all you can look at.

I'm aware, but it's hard to find evidence of a pitcher getting compared to the rest of the staff. All of Marlins pitchers get terrible run support, but that's just because the Marlins are bad. I'd be reluctant to give a pitcher unlucky just because of that.

Is that a stat that measures run support? If so, that would be super useful

EDIT: Hey, would you look at that. There is! http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_ ... expanded-2

A guy like Jason Hammel is lucky, seeing as how the orioles have one of the best offences in the al and his era is sky high, but Chris Tillman isn't lucky I'd say, considering he has a pretty good ERA and isn't just a bad pitcher on a good team

Edit: wow, nice find skittle.

So we could use that, and see if a guy gets like 1 run a game, but has an era of 3.02, we could give him unlucky?

Agreed. Run support makes a huge difference.

Felix is on my fantasy team, and the other night he pitched 9 innings, gave up 1 run, with 11 K's, and got a no decision.

Sounds like MLB Life to me.

Here's an indication:

Except then it would be a loss. He allowed a run, after all.

...No it wasn't. It was tied 1-1 after 9 innings, and the Mariners ended up losing in the 13th. It's a no decision if he exits the game when it's tied.