Potential 2010–11 free agentsUNDERLING: Mr. GM? You asked me to report to you during the All-Star break on potential free agents during the next off-season. Is this a good time?
GM: Yes. What do you have for me? Should it be a strong free-agent market this off-season?
UNDERLING: Yes. With both pitchers and position players, there is some top tier talent that is probably out of our reach, but will probably draw attention from some of the other quality free agents that would be in our wheelhouse.
GM: Well...we already have about $10 million per season invested in our two top starting pitchers, and we will absolutely need to re-sign Peavy unless he collapses in the second half, so I don't know if we're going to devote more payroll to pitching, but what's that look like?
UNDERLING: The prime potential free agents who are likely out of our financial reach probably include
Roy Halladay, Ben Sheets, and Dontrelle Willis. John Lackey should be available for around $5 million per season.
Justin Verlander and Scott Kazmir may be available for a little less than that.
Daniel Cabrera (98 DA SL – one, CB – three, CH – two) is currently earning less than any other pitcher with a mid- to high-90s fastball and A or B stamina ($1.15 million for the season), and may be the bargain of the next off-season.
GM: That sounds great - we will definitely keep tabs on Cabrera and hope he hits the market. What about outfielders?
UNDERLING: We should probably try to re-sign free-agent outfielders
Eric Byrnes (309, 15 HR, 65 RBI) and Jason Bay (316, 11 HR, 48 RBI) because they will be the most well-rounded outfielders available.
Shane Victorino (DCBFCC) should be available at around $1 million per season, which would save us about $3 to $4 million per season, but he is not as strong defensively as either Byrnes or Bay, and Byrnes is better with his bat.
GM: tying up about $8 million in our outfield might be a tough call, but I see your point. With the expansive outfield of Panpaka Park, we probably need Victorino if we don't sign both Byrns and Bay.
UNDERLING: Well, sir. Our 2009 1st round draft pick would be a drop-off offensively from Bay, Byrnes, or Victorino, but
Ruggiano (EDCDCE) would provide similar defense to Victorino.
GM: If we go with Ruggiano next year and it does not work, what will the outfield free-agent market look like in the 2011–12 off-season?
UNDERLING: Well, sir, the outfielders who would probably generate the most interest would be
Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones, both of whom will probably command salaries in excess of $18 million per season - well out of our range. There are also a few outfielders that will be looking for $9 or $10 million contracts, and probably the one who would most interest you is
Juan Pierre (CDAEBA). There could also be two more affordable options -
Emil Brown (DDCDBC) and Matt Diaz (CBBFBC). Matt is currently playing for the league minimum, probably because he tends to strike out a lot and does not hit well with runners in scoring position. For what it's worth sir, in three years, it will likely not be a good time for us to get a solid, affordable outfielder.
Hunter Pence is scheduled to be a free agent, but it is hard to believe the Pirates would allow him to hit the market. The only other players of interest currently earning less than $4 million per season is
Carl Crawford, who would be a good option, but he would be the only option.
GM: Thank you. Let's talk about potential DHs. It is well known that first baseman
Casey Kotchman (BBEDDC), who is having a poor season, is unhappy about not being our regular first baseman, and we are unhappy with his production, and he will assuredly depart at the end of the season.
UNDERLING: well, sir, we do have some internal options for DH that would be the most affordable. First of all, we could shift the productive
Josh Bard (DCFEDB) to DH like we did in 2008. I know
Obradovich (EBCCCD) is expected to take over the catching position soon, and while he has underperformed offensively this season, he was focusing on being a good plate blocker. If he focuses on his offense for the rest of this season and next off-season, that may be the best scenario.
Swanson (ECCDDE – two), who we drafted as a rookie in our 2008 league-wide draft, might also be an interesting option. He served as our DH for much of the 2008 season when Bard was in blue condition. He has the power hitting ability and would give us additional roster flexibility, since he can play third base and both corner outfield spots.
GM: Good points. Bard might not want to be strictly a DH. It is definitely easier to use an older player or somebody who is considered to have poor defensive skills so that we don't run into the same issue as we have with Casey Kotchman. What will be our options if we go outside the organization?
UNDERLING: as with pitching, sir, the top free agents who are likely out of our range should draw attention away from our potential targets.
Manny Ramirez, Maglio Ordonez, Lance Berkman, and David Ortiz are each earning more than $12 million per season. The following players may offer a better value for us:
Chase Utley (BABEDD) might be the perfect candidate, considering his combination of power and speed, and it might just be a matter of how much more than his current $4.2 million salary he is asking
Matt Stairs, Travis Hafner, and Kevin Youkilis are all DB offensive players earning between $2.3 and $3.2 million. Stairs is about 9 or 10 years older than Haffner and Youkilis.
If 36-year-old Dimitri Young does not retire, the first baseman with CB offense could likely be signed for about $1 million per season.
GM: interesting. Unless Utley demands a large increase, he is worth a few million more than Stairs, Travis Hafner, and Kevin Youkilis. Young would seem to be a better value than Stairs, Hafner, and Youkilis...
UNDERLING: Yes, sir. There are more options, too.
Jack Cust (EA) might not fit our preference for a hitter who makes consistent contact, but he has power that cannot be ignored and might be willing to play for the league minimum. Also,
Ryan Church (DBDFDD – three) and Jason Kubel (DBECFD – three) are a pair of DB offensive outfielders who are currently playing for only 400,000 per season, and may be solid, affordable choices.
GM: interesting – it seems that if Cust, Church, or Kubel is available, It won't make sense to go with Stairs, Hafner, or Youkilis. If we lose Bay or Byrnes, and try to replace him with rookie Ruggiano, Church might be more attractive. Utley, Young, Church, and Kubel should be our prime targets for DH this off-season. Thank you, Underling. Good job!
UNDERLING: Thank you, Sir.
WHAT I'LL PROBABLY DO:Sign Byrnes or Bay to a 2-3 year contract of $5 million or less before the FA period. Bay is probably more valuable because he is a few years younger and his A defense in the Panpaka left field outweighs Byrnes' power and ability to play center and left.
After the 1st week of FA (I don't sign anyone the first week)...
...if Chase Utley is available for $5 million or less, sign him and Victorino or Church. If I sign Church and not Victorino, Ruggiano will be an outfield starter.
...if Chase Utley is not available for $5 million or less, try to resign Bay or Byrns and Church.
...if neither Utley nor Bay or Byrns is available, try to sign Victorino and Dimitri Young.
If we do not sign Victorino and we lose Bay or Byrns, Ruggiano will probably start in center field. If we do not sign Utley or Young, we will shift Josh Bard to DH and if C Obradovich struggles as a starting player, will shift Bard back to our starting catcher and use Swanson or another internal option at DH.
Also, resign Peavy and sign Daniel Cabrera, if available after week 1.