Power Pros Forum

94-125-111-3FOSH-2CB-2SLD, Consistency 2

top speed 96
control 138
stamina 115

DCB 2
Cutter 2
Slider 1
CHG 1
2SFB 1

Lucky
Release 2
Fat pitch
Gd Pace

Throws five pitches. He leads with a four-seam fastball at 90–93 mph. He also has a two-seam fastball (low 90s), slider (low-mid 80s), changeup (low-mid 80s), and curveball (low-mid 70s). The slider is mostly used against right-handed hitters, the changeup mostly against lefties Scouts originally regarded his fastball as his best pitch and his changeup the least developed. With the help of Alex Cobb, Odorizzi developed a split-change..

The numbers on his new split-changeup thingy were pretty darn good at the end of the campaign: about 15% whiffs and 50% ground balls. The new offering helped his otherwise ordinary four-seamer (with below-average velocity), which he uses up in the strike zone, to become more effective: 9.8% whiffs (up by more than a percentage point) and greater than 15% pop-ups (a jump of about 5.5 percentage points). (Results on the cutter-slider hybrid Hickey mentioned are unfavorable, but perhaps they made the pitcher’s traditional slider more effective, because its outcomes were better. Anybody knows, fire away.)

Odorizzi relied on his fast ball quite a bit last season, and it was his most effective pitch according to FanGraphs pitch values, which is a bit surprising since his fastball averaged just 90.3 mph last season. If he can improve the effectiveness of his secondary offerings, we could see an increase in his ground ball rate and a drop in his HR/FB rate and a corresponding drop in his ERA.

..Propensity to induce fly balls (which have ended up as pop flies often; he was in the top 10 in pop-up rate among qualifiers in 2014).

Odorizzi's new split-fingered pitch is unquestionably distinct from his old changeup. There's much more drop to the pitch, and it's probably better.

A huge percentage of the balls put in play against the splitter are groundballs. While Odorizzi's changeup was a fly ball pitch, his splitter has produced 68% groundballs so far this season. Groundballs are a good thing with an infield defense as strong as the Rays have, and there's research to suggest that extreme groundball pitchers are actually giving up softer groundballs than normal.

His fastball, at least by velocity, is unimpressive, as it averages just 90.5 mph. He complements that with both a slider and curve ball, as well as a splitter/changeup, depending on which source you check. A quick look at his SwStk% marks by pitch type reveals some surprising information — all of his secondary pitches induce swings and misses at a worse than league average rate for that pitch type!

With the fly ball tendency and decent walk rate that should improve, Odorizzi is a good bet for a mid-1.20s WHIP with a highly variable ERA and a good number of Ks relative to the number of innings he throws.

He relies on a solid four pitch mix (fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up) and good control to get batters out. While displaying solid control in his stint with the Rays, the young righty's command lagged behind, leading to a high hit rate. For a guy without overpowering stuff, commanding pitches (ie., locating them where intended) is more than just imperative: it's necessary.

None of these pitches are very impressive. His 84 mph changeup is fairly straight, yet neither does it precisely mirror the movement of his fastball. For success with his changeup, Odorizzi will need to rely on establishing his fastball and then selling the pitch with arm speed. Sliders are more difficult to evaluate based solely on their movement. Also at 84 mph, Odorizzi's version of the slider is closer on the spectrum to a cutter than it is to a curve, but pitchers succeed with every manner of slider. If Odorizzi can command the pitch I won't have a bad thing to say about it. In his brief major league appearance last year, he used it almost exclusively against righties..it most resembles the curve of the man he's seeking to replace in the Rays rotation, James Shields.

added a splitter over the offseason, and it's transformed him from questionable prospect to bona fide major league starter. Thanks to his new pitch, Jake has already eclipsed his career high in strikeouts, and is a big reason why the Rays are still in the playoff race. He limits home runs, surrendering only 0.93 dingers per nine innings, and he is prone to the walk.. If Odorizzi's splitter is working effectively, expect to see a lot of ground balls and strikeouts.

The major knock on Odorizzi, and it’s almost unforgivable, is his ridiculous (not in a good way) ground ball rate: 29.9%. Even though Odorizzi pitches in a strong pitcher’s park, allowing that many fly balls is going to lead to a lot of homers — 20 in just 168 IP last year with a modest 8.7% HR/FB rate.