Power Pros Forum

The lefty’s success comes from his fantastic changeup that’s set up by his command and aggressiveness with his fastball. He’s currently ranked 8th on the Athletics Nation community prospect list. The only hiccup is that Nolin has only one start in which he’s thrown 100 pitches or more. This isn’t because he has a Pomeranz-like high pitch count tendency; it’s more to do with his gradual comeback from his sports hernia surgery that he had earlier in the year.

Early on, the left-handed pitcher struggled with his fastball command and the opposing hitters were having some really good hacks on his offerings. He was also not throwing his curveball for strikes on a consistent basis. The good news is that those issues should be correctable. At least part of the issue was due to Nolin’s mechanics. His body was drifting forward, causing his arm to drag behind him and messing with his release. It improved as the game progressed and once he stopped rushing through his delivery, although he’s a naturally-quick worker. Nolin doesn’t do himself any favors with his delivery because he ends his follow-through in a very poor fielding position and I watched two catchable bouncers get past him. By landing in a more favorable position, he could potentially snag or knock down a lot more ground balls.

In general, his delivery suggests to me that he’ll never have better than average command. I would give his low-90s fastball a potential 50 grade and his curveball a 55-60. He didn’t use his changeup much at all in this game and I would have a tough time putting a fair grade on the offering. Based on what I saw (keeping in mind this was just his third start on the year), I would have to rate Nolin as a future No. 4 starter. He doesn’t look ready for the majors but another 10-15 minor league starts could make a world of difference.

He's a big (6'5, 235 pounds) command-and-control lefty with an extreme fly-ball tendency (sound familiar?). He throws mostly in the 89-92 MPH range, although he's capable of reaching back for 95. His only pitch that grades out as above-average (or "plus," in scouting parlance) is his change-up, which combined with his deceptive delivery has been his key to success in the minors. The change in scenery from Toronto to Oakland gives Nolin an excellent chance of reaching his ceiling as soon as this upcoming season. He's 25 years old and doesn't have much to prove at the minor league level (He owns a career 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with a strikeout-walk ratio of 451/142 over 438⅓ innings). He should compete for No. 5 starter job this spring

..with an average curveball that’s more consistent than his slider and an above average changeup to go with advanced feel to pitch. Nolin gets good plane and deception from his delivery, but his fastball is pretty straight and when his mechanics get out of whack, he can elevate. This has made him more of a fly ball pitcher with less margin for error the higher up the ladder he goes, as he lacks a true out-pitch and that extra tick of velocity is important in the big leagues, which means Nolin can overthrow at times, leaving the ball up. He projects as a back-end starter, as there’s enough stuff and feel to stick in the rotation and he could be a #4 starter if it all goes right and his command plays up, but he’s more likely a #5 starter with some shot to be more of a long reliever if he can’t address these concerns.

Nolin is a big 6-5, 235 pound lefty, born December 26, 1989. He threw in the 80s when drafted and was at 87-92 when I saw him for Lansing back in '11, but his velocity has picked up steadily and he's more consistently in the low-90s now. He has three usable secondary pitches with his curveball, slider, and changeup. The changeup was the best of these pitches two years ago, but recent reports indicate he's been concentrating on using his breaking ball. Sabermetrically, Nolin has put up a strong set of numbers, better than many prospects with better press clippings. The scouting consensus is that he can be a useful number four starter.

So like maybe

93 top speed
High E-Mid D control
Low B stamina

1 SLD
1-2 CB
3-4 CCHG

What doth thou thinketh?