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Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
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Author:  AgentP [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress

As many people know, I am a big fan of Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy is having a poor statistical season on the outside (1-9, 5.29 ERA), but I believe he will regress back to his normal self (or better), due to the following reasons:

1. HR/FB ratio: McCarthy’s 22.2% HR/FB ratio is his career-high by over seven percent, and just his second over ten percent since 2006, his second year in the league. xFIP, which calculates a pitcher’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) with a 10.5% HR/FB ratio, gives McCarthy’s value at 2.86. FIP disregards fluctuating performance on balls in play and the like, and thus, accounting solely for home runs (at a 10.5% rate), walks, strikeouts, and HBP, his ERA would sit in that range, not at 5.29 where it currently is.

2. BABIP: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) measures opposing batting average, counting only balls in play (not counting strikeouts). While McCarthy’s career value for that stat is .293, his 2014 BABIP is .336. Lowering this 40 points would do McCarthy a lot of good. Neither ZiPS nor Steamer projections give McCarthy an updated BABIP projection under .314, however.

3. Velocity: Coming into this season, McCarthy’s hardest pitch had been clocked at 94.1 mph, back in his rookie season, and he sat between 90 and 91 mph each of his last three seasons. In 2014, however, he has topped out at 95.9 mph, and is sitting around 93 mph with his sinker and 91.5 mph with his cut fastball.

4. Cut Fastball: Not only has the velocity on McCarthy’s cutter spiked (89.7 mph in 2013 to 91.5 mph in 2014), but it has overall been a better pitch that it was in the past. The cut fastball has generated a 36.1% K rate, a career high for any single-season pitch of McCarthy’s, and opponents are hitting just .188 against the pitch. The pitch’s xMovement has increased from -0.3 to -1.4, and its zMovement has gone from 5.3 to 6.6. In addition, his whiff rate (SwStr%) on the cutter has been 14.0% this season, McCarthy’s highest for any pitch since 2008.

All minimums were 15 pitches in one season, unless otherwise noted. All data used is courtesy of Fangraphs.com. All statistics are current as of June 15, 2014.
Author:  SkittleMonster [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
You might want to use a different word than regress. Regression usually implies something is going to get worse.
Author:  AgentP [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
SkittleMonster wrote:
You might want to use a different word than regress. Regression usually implies something is going to get worse.


verb
riˈgres/
1.
return to a former or less developed state.

I'm suggesting that he's going to regress to his former state, in which he posted much better stats (read: the state in which he was pitching for Oakland and didn't have an astronomical HR/FB ratio).
Author:  Power Pros 27 [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
Misleading title is misleading
Author:  SkittleMonster [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
AgentP wrote:
SkittleMonster wrote:
You might want to use a different word than regress. Regression usually implies something is going to get worse.


verb
riˈgres/
1.
return to a former or less developed state.

I'm suggesting that he's going to regress to his former state, in which he posted much better stats (read: the state in which he was pitching for Oakland and didn't have an astronomical HR/FB ratio).

Connotation bro. It's like the word consequence. A consequence is simply a result of one's actions, but people rarely use the word unless they're talking about negative results. Technically, you can regress for the better, but it's rarely used that way. It makes more sense to simply say "get better" or "improve"
Author:  AgentP [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
SkittleMonster wrote:
AgentP wrote:
SkittleMonster wrote:
You might want to use a different word than regress. Regression usually implies something is going to get worse.


verb
riˈgres/
1.
return to a former or less developed state.

I'm suggesting that he's going to regress to his former state, in which he posted much better stats (read: the state in which he was pitching for Oakland and didn't have an astronomical HR/FB ratio).

Connotation bro. It's like the word consequence. A consequence is simply a result of one's actions, but people rarely use the word unless they're talking about negative results.


Find a word that you like better than "regress", and I'll use it instead. Good luck.
Author:  SkittleMonster [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
Already did. Edited the post
Author:  AgentP [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
I mean, I explain what I mean by "regress" in within the first three lines of the post, so I don't see how it's a problem.
Author:  Power Pros 27 [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
When I read the title, I thought you meant McCarthy would get worse, so I was really confused when your post stated that he was going to improve
Author:  detroittigers15 [ Sun Jun 15, 2014 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Why Brandon McCarthy Will Regress
You could simply say "regress to the mean"
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